1. Headline Inflation

La Union’s inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households decelerated to 1.1 percent in March 2025 from 3.5 percent in February 2025. This brings the provincial average inflation from January to March 2025 for this income group to 2.3 percent. In March 2024, inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households was higher at 6.5 percent.  (Table A and Figure1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of March 2025 Overall Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation of the province for the bottom 30% income households in March 2025 was primarily brought about by the annual decline of 0.5 percent in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages during the month from an annual growth of 3.2 percent in February 2025. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels followed with a slower year-on-year mark up of 7.3 percent in March 2025 from 10.0 percent in the previous month. Transport ranked third contributor to the downtrend in March 2025 inflation with an annual decrease of 1.9 percent from an annual increment of 0.2 percent in February 2025.

In addition, slower annual growth rates were recorded in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

1. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent;

2. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance,1.4 percent from 1.9 percent;

3. Health, 1.5 percent from 2.7 percent; and

4. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 0.3 percent from 0.7 percent.

In contrast, alcoholic beverages and tobacco recorded a faster annual increase in March 2025 at 1.5 percent inflation from 1.2 percent in February 2025.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual growth rate:

1. Information and communication, 0.2 percent;

2. Recreation, sport and culture, 1.0 percent;

3. Education Services, 7.4 percent; and

4. Restaurants and accommodation services, 0.9 percent.

Furthermore, financial services retained zero growth in March 2025.

1.2 Main Contributors to the March 2025 Overall Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the March 2025 overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households of the province were the following:

1. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 116.9 percent share or 1.3 percentage points;

2. Restaurants and accommodation services with 9.1 percent share or 0.1 percentage point; and

3. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 4.3 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households at the provincial level also exhibited a downtrend with an annual decline of 0.5 percent in March 2025 from an annual increase of 3.4 percent in February 2025. In March 2024, food inflation was higher at 11.9 percent.

2.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the March 2025 Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation for the bottom 30% income households of the province in March 2025 was primarily contributed by the faster annual decrease of 15.6 percent in the rice index during the month from an annual drop of 5.3 percent in February 2025. Fish and other seafood followed with a slower year-on-year mark up of 9.5 percent during the month from 11.1 percent in February 2025. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals ranked third main contributor to the downtrend of food inflation in March 2025 with a slower annual increment of 11.1 percent during the month from 12.2 percent in February 2025.

In addition, compared with their previous month’s inflation rates, lower rates were noted in the indices of flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products and other cereals at 2.0 percent from 2.6 percent and vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 12.3 percent from 14.7 percent.

On the contrary, faster annual increases were observed in the indices of the following food groups during the month:

1. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 2.9 percent from 1.1 percent;

2. Fruits and nuts, 5.5 percent from 3.4 percent; and

3. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 10.7 percent from 9.5 percent.

Moreover, an annual increase of 0.6 percent was also noted in the sugar, confectionery and desserts index during the month from an annual decline of 1.5 percent in the previous month.

Oils and Fats recorded a zero inflation during the month from an annual decline of 6.4 percent in February 2025. Meanwhile, corn also recorded zero growth in March 2025.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation contributed -26.9 percent or -0.30 percentage point to the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the province in March 2025.

Among the food groups, the top three main contributors to food inflation for the bottom 30% income households during the month were the following:

1. Cereals and cereal products with 1,114.7 percent share or -5.6 percentage points;

2. Oils and fats with 0.0 percent share or 0.0 percentage point; and

3. Sugar, confectionery and desserts with -4.9 percent share or 0.0 percentage point.

SGD. DANITES E. TEÑIDO, PhD
Chief Statistical Specialist

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