1.    Provincial Headline Inflation

The provincial headline inflation was recorded at 1.4 percent in November_2024, a 0.8_percentage point increase from 0.6 percent in October 2024. The recorded rate is 1.1_percentage points lower than the national inflation rate of 2.5_percent in November_2024. (Tables A, B & C, and Figure I)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

This upward trend was primarily driven by an increase in the year-on-year rate of heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages from 1.7 percent to 3.5 percent in November 2024. The increase in the inflation rate of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) from negative 16.0 percent to 7.9 percent contributed the largest decrease to the commodity group. The increase in the inflation rate of transport also played a significant factor in the upward trend as its inflation rate decreased at a slower rate from negative 5.5 percent in October 2024 to negative 4.1 percent in November 2024.

A slower decrease in the inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels was also recorded from negative 2.2 percent in October 2024 to negative 2.0 percent in November 2024. Consequently, a higher year-on-year growth were posted for personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, from 3.0 percent to 3.1 percent, and information and communication, from negative 0.1 percent to 0.0 percent.

Consequently, indices for the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.8 percent);
b.    Clothing and footwear (0.9 percent);
c.    Health (2.1 percent); and
d.    Education Services (8.4 percent).

On the contrary, a lower price index was observed for the following commodity groups:
a.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent;
b.    Recreation, sport and culture, from 5.2 percent to 4.9 percent; and
c.    Restaurants and accommodation services, from 3.9 percent to 2.8 percent.

Financial services continued to record a zero percent annual rate. (Table B)

1.2    Main Contributors to the Provincial Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the November 2024 provincial headline inflation were the following:
a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 97.1 percent share or 1.36 percentage points;
b.    Restaurants and accommodation services with 23.4 percent share or 0.33_percentage points; and
c.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services with 10.7 percent share or 0.15 percentage points.

2.    Food Inflation

At the provincial level, food inflation increased to 3.7 percent in November 2024 from 1.7 percent in October 2024. This is 0.2 percentage points higher than the national food inflation rate of 3.5 percent. In November 2023, the provincial food inflation rate was higher at 4.6 percent.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation

The surge in provincial food inflation in November 2024 was primarily driven by the increase in the year-on-year price of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) to 7.9 percent from negative 16.0 percent in October_2024.

In addition, higher price indices were also observed in the following food groups:
a.    Corn, from 13.1 percent to 14.2 percent;
b.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND), from negative 3.6 percent to negative 3.1 percent;
c.    Fish and other seafood (ND), from negative 0.7 percent to 1.8 percent;
d.    Fruits and nuts, from 9.1 percent to 9.7 percent; and
e.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), from 5.1 percent to 5.3_percent.

On the other hand, a decrease in the indices of the following food groups was observed during the reference month:
a.    Rice, from 18.6 percent to 12.9 percent; and
b.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), from 6.0 percent to 3.4 percent.

Consequently, the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals (1.5 percent);
b.    Oils and fats (ND) (1.7 percent); and
c.    Sugar, confectionery and desserts (ND) (negative 1.6 percent).
 

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation recorded a 97.1 percent share of provincial inflation in November 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a.    Cereals and cereal products, with 76.5 percent or 2.83 percentage points;
b.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND), with 16.8_percent or 0.62_percentage points; and
c.    Fruits and nuts, with 7.8 percent or 0.29 percentage points.

Sgd. MARILYN P. VERGARA
Chief Statistical Specialist
Ilocos Norte Provincial Statistical Office