1. Headline Inflation

La Union’s headline inflation for the bottom 30% income households decelerated to 3.0 percent in September 2024 from 3.6 percent in August 2024. This was the lowest recorded inflation for the bottom 30% income household in the province since March 2022.  This brings the provincial average inflation for this income group from January to September 2024 to 5.8 percent.  In September 2023, inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households was posted at 8.2 percent.  (Table A and Figure1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Overall Inflation

The main driver to the downtrend of the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the province in September 2024 was the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages with 3.6 percent annual inflation during the month from 4.7 percent in August 2024.

This was followed by transport with a slower annual increment of 1.8 percent in September 2024 from 3.3 percent in August 2024.   Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels ranked third main contributor to the deceleration of inflation for this income group as it recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percent during the month from 4.2 percent inflation in the previous month.

In addition, recreation, sport and culture also recorded a slower annual increment during the month at 1.0 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous month.

In contrast, higher annual growth rate was recorded in the health index at 1.9 percent in September 2024 from 1.7 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual increment:

1. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, at 3.4 percent;

2. Clothing and footwear, at 1.9 percent;

3. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, at 0.7 percent;

4. Information and communication, at 0.2 percent;

5. Education services, at 7.4 percent;

6. Restaurants and accommodation services, at 0.9 percent; and

7. Personal care and miscellaneous goods and services, at 0.7 percent.

Financial services recorded zero percent inflation during the month.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Overall Inflation

The following commodity groups were the top three contributors to the September 2024 overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households of the province:   

1. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 64.6 percent share or 1.9 percentage points;

2. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 20.0 percent share or 0.6 percentage point; and

3. Transport with 4.2 percent share or 0.1percentage point.

4.  

2. Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households at the provincial level also exhibited a downtrend with 3.7 percent in September 2024 from 4.9 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, food inflation was higher at 12.5 percent.

2.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The downtrend in the food inflation of the province in September 2024 was primarily contributed by the annual decrease of 20.5 percent in the index of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses in September 2024 from an annual increase of 1.8 percent in August 2024. This was followed by sugar, confectionery and desserts with faster year-on-year decline of 5.0 percent during the month from an annual decrease of 4.3 percent in August 2024. 

On the contrary, faster annual increases were observed in the indices of the following commodity groups in September 2024:

1. Rice, at 12.0 percent inflation from 9.6 percent;

2. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, at 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent;

3. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, at 7.1 percent from 5.5 percent

4. Fish and other seafood, at 1.7 percent from 0.7 percent; and

5. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, at 10.8 percent from 7.4 percent.

A faster annual increment of 2.9 percent in September 2024 from an annual drop of 1.2 percent in August 2024 was observed in the index of fruits and nuts. 

Meanwhile, the annual increase of 17.9 percent in the corn index, 3.9 percent in milk, other dairy products and eggs index, and the annual decline of 6.6 percent in the oils and fats index remained during the month.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation contributed 63.3 percent or 1.9 percentage points to the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the province in September 2024.

Among the food groups, the top three main contributors to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals with 92.2 percent share or 3.4 percentage points;

2. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 24.0 percent share or 0.9 percentage point; and

3. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified with 7.6 percent share or 0.3 percentage point.

SGD. DANITES E. TEÑIDO, PhD
Chief Statistical Specialist
La Union Provincial Statistical Office

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