1. Headline Inflation

La Union’s headline inflation slowed down further to 1.3 percent in September 2024.  This was the lowest recorded inflation in the province since January 2022. This brings the provincial average inflation from January to September 2024 at 3.3 percent. In September 2023, inflation rate was posted at 5.4 percent.  (Table A and Figure1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downtrend in the inflation of the province in September 2024 was primarily influenced by the slower annual increment in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 2.3 percent during the month from 3.6 percent in August 2024.

This was followed by transport with an annual drop of 2.2 percent in September 2024 from its annual mark up of 0.7 percent in August 2024.   Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels ranked third main contributor to the deceleration of the headline inflation of the province as it recorded a slower year-on-year increase of 1.6 percent in September 2024 from 2.3 percent inflation in the previous month.

In addition, alcoholic beverages and tobacco also recorded a deceleration of 2.0 percent in September 2024 from 2.1 percent in August 2024.

On the contrary, faster annual growth was recorded in the index of furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance at 0.4 percent in September 2024 from 0.3 percent in August 2024.  Faster annual increase was also observed in the index of health at 1.1 percent in September 2024 from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual rate:

1. Clothing and footwear, at 1.8 percent inflation;

2. Information and communication, at 0.3 percent inflation;

3. Recreation, sport and culture, at 1.4 percent inflation;

4. Education services, at 3.5 percent inflation;

5. Restaurants and accommodation services, at 0.5 percent inflation; and

6. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, at 0.5 percent inflation.

Financial services also retained an annual decline of 0.1 percent in September 2024.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the September 2024 overall inflation of the province were the following:

1. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 66.6 percent share or 0.9 percentage points;

2. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 22.8 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and

Restaurants and accommodation services with 5.1 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

2. Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level also slowed down to 2.4 percent in September 2024 from 3.7 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, food inflation was recorded at 11.5 percent.

2.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation in the province in September 2024 was primarily contributed by the faster annual decline of 25.3 percent in the index of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses during the month from an annual decrease of 2.4 percent in August 2024. This was followed by milk, other dairy products and eggs with a slower annual increase of 3.0 percent in September 2024 from 3.1 percent in August 2024.  The third contributor to the downtrend of food inflation in the province in September 2024 was sugar, confectionery and desserts with a faster year-on-year drop of 4.4 percent during the month from an annual decrease of 4.3 percent in the previous month.

In contrast, faster annual increments were observed in the following commodity groups:

1. Rice, at 11.9 percent inflation from 9.7 percent;

2. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, at 3.7 percent inflation from 3.6 percent;

3. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, at 7.2 percent inflation from 5.6 percent;

4. Fruits and nuts, at 6.9 percent inflation from 2.2 percent; and

5. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, at 4.0 percent inflation from 1.8 percent.

In addition, fish and other seafoods recorded a 0.7 percent inflation in September 2024 from an annual decrease of 0.8 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the annual increase of 17.9 percent in the corn index and the annual decrease of 1.8 percent in the oils and fats index remained in September 2024.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflatio

Food inflation contributed 63.9 percent or 0.8 percentage points to the overall inflation in September 2024. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1. Cereal and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals with 92.4 percent share or 2.2 percentage points;

2. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, with 40.9 percent share or 1.0 percentage point; and

3. Fruits and nuts, with 7.9 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

SGD. DANITES E. TEÑIDO, PhD
Chief Statistical Specialist
La Union Provincial Statistical Office

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