1.    Provincial Headline Inflation

The provincial headline inflation was recorded at negative 1.2 percent in September_2024, a 2.1 percentage point decline from 0.9 percent in August 2024. This is the first deflation recorded for the province since the province recorded three (3) consecutive deflation from September to November of 2019. The recorded rate is 3.1_percentage points lower than the national inflation rate of 1.9 percent in September_2024. (Tables A, B & C, and Figure I)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

This downward trend was primarily driven by a decrease in the year-on-year rate of heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages from 3.1 percent in August 2024 to negative 0.5 percent in September 2024. The decrease in the price of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) contributed the largest decrease to the commodity group as its inflation rate decreased from 0.5 percent in August 2024 to negative 28.5 percent in September 2024. The decrease in the price of goods and services related to transport also played a significant factor in the downtrend as its inflation rate decreased from negative 1.1 percent in August 2024 to negative 5.9_percent in September 2024.

In addition, a lower year-on-year rate was also recorded for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels from negative 5.4 percent in August 2024 to negative 6.5 percent in September 2024; clothing and footwear from 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent; and information and communication from no movement in August 2024 to negative 0.1_percent in September 2024.

Consequently, indices for the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Education services (8.4 percent); and
b.    Restaurants and accommodation services (3.9 percent).

On the contrary, higher price indices were observed on the price indices of the following commodity groups:
a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, from 2.3 percent to 2.8 percent;
b.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, from 1.8 percent to 2.0 percent;
c.    Health, from 1.6 percent to 2.1 percent;
d.    Recreation, sport, and culture, from 4.5 percent to 5.2 percent;
e.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, from 1.4 percent to 3.0_percent.

Financial services continued to record a zero percent annual rate. (Table B)

1.2    Main Contributors to the Provincial Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the September 2024 provincial headline inflation were the following:
a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 41.1 percent share or 50.18 percentage points;
b.    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 19.1 percent share or 23.34_percentage points; and
c.    Restaurants and accommodation services with 10.4 percent share or 12.67_percentage points.

2.    Food Inflation

At the provincial level, food inflation decreased to negative 0.7 percent in September_2024 from 3.2 percent in August 2024. This is 2.1 percentage points lower than the national food inflation rate of 1.4 percent. In September 2023, the provincial food inflation rate was higher at 10.5 percent.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The decline in provincial food inflation in September 2024 was primarily driven by the decrease in the year-on-year price of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) to negative 28.5 percent from 0.5 percent in August 2024.

In addition, lower price indices were also observed in the following food groups:
a.    Rice, from14.4 percent to 14.3 percent; 
b.    Flour, bread, and other bakery products, pasta products and other cereals, from 1.8 percent to 1.6 percent;
c.    Fish and other seafood (ND), from 2.6 percent to negative 1.1 percent;
d.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), from 7.0 percent to 6.0 percent;
e.    Oils and fats, from 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent;
f.    Fruits and nuts, from 6.5 percent to 4.8 percent;
g.    Sugar, confectionery, and desserts (ND), from 0.9 percent to negative 1.5_percent; and
h.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), from 4.1 percent to 3.2_percent.

On the other hand, an increase in the indices of the following food groups was observed during the month:
a.    Corn, from negative 12.3 percent to 13.1 percent; and
b.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND), from negative 4.5_percent to negative 3.1 percent.

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation recorded a 41.1 percent share of provincial inflation in September 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a.    Cereals and cereal products, with 416.1 percent or negative 2.91 percentage points;
b.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), with 49.9 percent or negative 0.35_percentage points; and
c.    Fruits and nuts, with 18.5 percent or negative 0.13 percentage points.

Sgd. MARILYN P. VERGARA
Chief Statistical Specialist
Ilocos Norte Provincial Statistical Office