1.    Provincial Headline Inflation

The provincial headline inflation was recorded at 0.6 percent in October 2024, a 1.8 percentage point increase from negative 1.2 percent in September 2024. The recorded rate is 1.7 percentage points lower than the national inflation rate of 2.3 percent in October 2024. (Tables A, B & C, and Figure I)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

This upward trend was primarily driven by an increase in the year-on-year rate of goods and services included in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels from negative 6.5 percent in September 2024 to negative 2.1 in October 2024. The increase in the inflation rate of electricity from negative 38 percent to 22.4 percent contributed the largest decrease to the commodity group. The increase in the inflation rate of heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages also played a significant factor in the upward trend as its inflation rate increased from negative 0.5 percent in September 2024 to 1.7 percent in October 2024.

In addition, a higher year-on-year rate was also recorded for transport from negative 5.9 percent in September 2024 to negative 5.5 percent in October 2024.

Consequently, indices for the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
    a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.8 percent);
    b.    Clothing and footwear (0.9 percent);
    c.    Health (2.1 percent);
    d.    Information and communication (negative 0.1 percent);
    e.    Recreation, sport and culture (5.2 percent);
    f.    Education Services (8.4 percent);
    g.    Restaurants and accommodation services (3.9 percent); and 
    h.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services (3.0 percent).

On the contrary, a lower price index was observed on furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance from 2.0 percent in September 2024 to 1.8 percent in October 2024.

Financial services continued to record a zero percent annual rate. (Table B)

1.2    Main Contributors to the Provincial Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the October 2024 provincial headline inflation were the following:
    a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 99.6 percent share or 0.60 percentage points;
    b.    Restaurants and accommodation services with 68.9 percent share or 0.41 percentage points; and
    c.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services with 21.9 percent share or 0.13 percentage points.

2.    Food Inflation

At the provincial level, food inflation increased to 1.7 percent in October_2024 from negative 0.7 percent in September 2024. This is 1.3 percentage points lower than the national food inflation rate of 3.0 percent. In September 2023, the provincial food inflation rate was higher at 6.3 percent.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation

The surge in provincial food inflation in October 2024 was primarily driven by the increase in the year-on-year price of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) to negative 16.0 percent from negative 28.5 percent in September 2024.

In addition, higher price indices were also observed in the following food groups:
    a.    Rice, from 14.3 percent to 18.6 percent;
    b.    Fish and other seafood (ND), from negative 1.1 percent to negative 0.7 percent;
    c.    Fruits and nuts, from 4.8 percent to 9.1 percent;
    d.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND), from negative 28.5 percent to negative 16.0 percent; and
    e.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), from 4.1 percent to 3.2 percent.

On the other hand, a decrease in the indices of the following food groups was observed during the reference month:
    a.    Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals, from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent;
    b.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND), from negative 3.1 percent to negative 3.6 percent; and
    c.    Sugar, confectionery and desserts (ND), from negative 1.5 percent to negative 1.6 percent.

Consequently, the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
    a)    Corn (13.1 percent),
    b)    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND) (percent); and
    c)    Oils and fats (ND) (1.7 percent).

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation recorded a 99.6 percent share of provincial inflation in October 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a.    Cereals and cereal products, with 147.9 percent or 2.51 percentage points;
b.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), with 14.0 percent or 0.24 percentage points; and
c.    Fruits and nuts, with 9.8 percent or 0.17 percentage points.

Sgd. MARILYN P. VERGARA
Chief Statistical Specialist
Ilocos Norte Provincial Statistical Office
 

/RPS