1.    Provincial Headline Inflation

The provincial headline inflation accelerated to 3.2 percent in January 2025, a 1.1 percentage point increase from 2.1 percent in December 2024. The recorded rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than the national inflation rate of 2.9 percent in January 2025. (Tables A, B & C, and Figure I)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The sustained upward trend was primarily driven by an increase in the inflation rate of goods and services relative to housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels from negative 1.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.8 percent in January 2025. The price of electricity contributed the largest increase in the commodity group as its inflation rate moved from negative 22.4 percent in December 2024 to 0.0 percent in January 2025. In addition to this, actual rentals paid by tenants for main residence also increased to 2.1 percent in January 2025 from 1.2 percent in the previous month.

The increase in the year-on-year rate for the following commodity groups also played a significant factor in sustaining the upward trend:
a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, from 2.7 percent to 5.1 percent;
b.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, from 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent;
c.    Health, from 2.1 percent to 4.1 percent; 

d.    Transport, from negative 0.3 percent to 2.4 percent;
e.    Recreation, sport and culture, from 4.8 percent to 5.1 percent;
f.    Restaurants and accommodation services, from 1.1 percent to 2.0 percent; and
g.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, from 3.1 percent to 5.2 percent.
 

Consequently, indices for the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Information and communication (0.0 percent); and
b.    Education Services (8.4 percent).

On the contrary, a lower price index was observed for the following commodity groups:
a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, from 4.4 percent to 3.8 percent; and
b.    Clothing and footwear, from 0.8 percent to 0.7 percent.

Financial services continued to record a zero percent annual rate. (Table B)

1.2    Main Contributors to the Provincial Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the January 2025 provincial headline inflation were the following:
a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 45.6 percent share or 1.46 percentage points;
b.    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 17.6 percent share or 0.56 percentage points; and
c.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services with 7.8 percent share or 0.25 percentage points.

2.    Food Inflation

At the provincial level, food inflation decreased to 3.9 percent in January 2025 from 4.6 percent in December 2024. This is 0.1 percentage points lower than the national food inflation rate of 4.0 percent. In January 2024, the provincial food inflation rate was higher at 4.1 percent.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The slower provincial food inflation in January 2025 was primarily driven by the decrease in the year-on-year price of rice to negative 4.2 percent from 8.0 percent in December 2024.

A slower rate of increase in the price index was also observed for the following food groups:
a.    Corn, from 14.2 percent to 13.7 percent;
b.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND), from negative 2.3 percent to negative 2.5 percent;
c.    Fish and other seafood (ND), from 1.2 percent to 0.5 percent;
d.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), from 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent; and
e.    Fruits and nuts (ND), from 8.1 percent to 7.4 percent.

On the other hand, an increase in the indices of the following food groups was observed during the reference month:
a.    Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, from 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent;
b.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND), from 28 percent to 56.3 percent;
c.    Sugar, confectionery and desserts (ND), from negative 1.7 percent to negative 1.4 percent; and
d.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), from 4.6 percent to
5.7 percent.

Consequently, the food group oils and fats moved at its previous month’s annual rate of 1.7 percent.
 

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation recorded an 45.6 percent share of provincial inflation in January 2025. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND), with 121.4 percent share or 4.73 percentage points;
b.    Fruits and nuts, with 6.0 percent share or 0.24 percentage points; and
c.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), with a 5.3 percent share or 0.21 percentage points.

Sgd. MARILYN P. VERGARA
Chief Statistical Specialist
Ilocos Norte Provincial Statistical Office
 

/RPS