1.    Provincial Headline Inflation

The provincial headline inflation was recorded at 2.1 percent in December_2024, a 0.7_percentage point increase from 1.4 percent in November 2024. The recorded rate is 0.8_percentage points lower than the national inflation rate of 2.9_percent in December_2024. (Tables A, B & C, and Figure I)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The sustained upward trend was primarily driven by a slower decrease in the inflation rate of goods and services relative to transport from negative 4.1 percent in November 2024 to negative 0.2 percent in December 2024. Gasoline contributed the largest increase in the commodity group as its inflation rate decreased at a slower rate from negative 9.8 percent in November 2024 to negative 1.1 percent in December 2024. The increase in the year-on-year rate of heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages from 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent in December 2024 also played a significant factor in the upward trend.

A slower decrease in the inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels was also recorded from negative 2.0 percent in November 2024 to negative 1.9 percent in December 2024.
 

Consequently, indices for the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance
(1.5 percent);
b.    Health (2.1 percent);
c.    Information and communication (0.0 percent);
d.    Education Services (8.4 percent); and
e.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services (3.1 percent).

On the contrary, a lower price index was observed for the following commodity groups:
a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, from 2.8 percent to 2.7 percent;
b.    Clothing and footwear, from 0.9 percent to 0.8 percent;
c.    Recreation, sport and culture, from 4.9 percent to 4.8 percent; and
d.    Restaurants and accommodation services, from 2.8 percent to 1.1 percent.

Financial services continued to record a zero percent annual rate. (Table B)

1.2    Main Contributors to the Provincial Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups contributing to the December 2024 provincial headline inflation were the following:
a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 88.4 percent share or 1.86 percentage points;
b.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services with 7.8 percent share or 0.16 percentage points; and
c.    Restaurants and accommodation services with 6.7 percent share or 0.14_percentage points.
 

2.    Food Inflation

At the provincial level, food inflation increased to 4.6 percent in December 2024 from 3.7 percent in November 2024. This is 1.1 percentage points higher than the national food inflation rate of 3.5 percent. In December 2023, the provincial food inflation rate was lower at 4.3 percent.

2.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation

The surge in provincial food inflation in December 2024 was primarily driven by the increase in the year-on-year price of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) to 28.0 percent from 7.9 percent in November_2024.

A slower rate of decrease in the price index was also observed for meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND), from negative 3.1 percent to negative 2.3 percent.

On the other hand, a decrease in the indices of the following food groups was observed during the reference month:
a.    Rice, from 12.9 percent to 8.0 percent;
b.    Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, from 1.5 percent to 1.4 percent;
c.    Fish and other seafood (ND), from 1.8 percent to 1.2 percent;
d.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND), from 3.4 percent to 1.7 percent;
e.    Fruits and nuts (ND), from 9.7 percent to 8.1 percent;
f.    Sugar, confectionery and desserts (ND), from negative 1.6 percent to negative 1.7 percent; and
g.    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. (ND), from 5.3 percent to
4.6 percent.

Consequently, the following commodity groups moved at their previous month’s annual rates:
a.    Corn (14.2 percent); and
b.    Oils and fats (ND) (1.7 percent).

2.2    Main Contributors to Food Inflation

Food inflation recorded an 88.4 percent share of provincial inflation in December 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND), with 52.3_percent or 2.41_percentage points;
b.    Cereals and cereal products, with 44.0 percent or 2.02 percentage points; and
c.    Fruits and nuts, with 5.7 percent or 0.26 percentage points.

Sgd. MARILYN P. VERGARA
Chief Statistical Specialist
Ilocos Norte Provincial Statistical Office

/RPS