Issue No. 9, Series of 2016
Sunday, May 1, 2016
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Region I for the 1st quarter of 2016 was pegged at 136.3. This figure was higher by a percentage point if compared to the last quarter’s index (135.3). The commodity groups which recorded high price indices were alcoholic beverages and tobacco (194.1), food and non-alcoholic beverages (150.8), and health (143.8). On the other hand, the commodity groups which showed lower price indices were communication (89.4), recreation and culture (108.9), and restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services (117.6).
By province, La Union demonstrated the highest consumer price index in 1st quarter of 2016 at 142.6, followed by Ilocos Sur (141.5), and Ilocos Norte (135.5). On the other hand, Pangasinan recorded the lowest price index at 133.4.
Table 1. Consumer Price Index by Commodity and Province in Region I: 1st Quarter 2016 (2006=100)
01 – Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 06 – Health
02 – Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 07 - Transport
03 – Clothing & Footwear 08 – Communication
04 – Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuel 09 – Recreation & Culture
05 – Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine 10 - Education
Maintenance of the House 11 – Restaurant & Miscellaneous Goods
Inflation Rate in Region I Posted at 1.9 in Q1 2916
The 1st quarter 2016 inflation rate in Region I decelerated to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent in 1st quarter of 2015, but it was higher by 1.0 percentage point than the recorded inflation rate in 4th quarter of 2015. The lower inflation rate of the region as compared to the previous year was caused by the negative movement of the price index for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (-0.5). The slow movement of price indices of communication (0.1), and education (1.0) also contributed to the sluggish movement of region’s inflation rate. Among the provinces in the region, Ilocos Norte obtained the highest inflation rate for the quarter at 4.9 percent. This figure was higher by 3.4 percentage points if compared to the province’s inflation rate in the previous quarter and also higher by 2.5 percentage points a year ago.
Figure 1. Year-on-Year Inflation Rate by Province, Region I: 4th Quarter 2015 and 1st Quarter 2014 and 2015. (2006 = 100)
The high inflation rate of Ilocos Norte in 1st quarter 2016 was caused by the commodity groups alcoholic beverages and tobacco (15.4), food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.8) and clothing and footwear (4.7).
The province of La Union had recorded an inflation rate of 2.7 for the 1st quarter of 2016. Said figure was higher by 1.3 percentage points as compared to the previous quarter inflation rate and also higher by 1.1 percentage point than that of the previous quarter.
The commodity groups which recorded high inflation rates in La Union were alcoholic beverages and tobacco (23.4), clothing and footwear (30.5), and transport (11.5).
Figure 2. Quarterly Inflation Rate by Province, Region I: 1st Quarter 2015 – 1st Quarter 2016. (2006 = 100)
For Ilocos Sur and Pangasinan, the inflation rates for the 1st quarter of 2016 were 2.1 and 1.1, respectively, higher than that of the previous quarter (Ilocos Sur, 1.1 and Pangasinan, 0.5).
The commodity groups with high 1st quarter 2016 inflation rates in Ilocos Sur were education (9.9), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.7) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.5). Meanwhile, the low inflation rate of Pangasinan in 1st quarter 2016 was mainly attributed by the stagnant prices of commodities under communication and education, and the slow movement of the price index for transport (0.2).
Purchasing Power of the Peso in Region I stood at 0.73 in Q1 2016
In terms of the purchasing power of the peso (PPP), Pangasinan recorded the highest in the region at 0.75, which typically means that the value of peso in 2006 in Pangasinan was equivalent to 75 centavos in the 1st quarter of 2016. This was followed by Ilocos Norte with a purchasing power of 0.74 and Ilocos Sur with 0.71. The lowest PPP was observed in the province of La Union (0.70). Over-all, in the region, the value of a peso in 2006 was only equivalent to 73 centavos in 1st quarter 2016.
Figure 3. Purchasing Power of the Peso in Region I, by Province: 1st Quarter 2016. (2006 = 100)
Table 2. CPI for All Income Households, Region I: Q1 2014 – Q1 2015 (2006=100)
Table 3. CPI for All Income Households, Ilocos Norte: Q1 2014 – Q1 2015 (2006=100)
Table 4. CPI for All Income Households, Ilocos Sur: January – December 2015 (2006=100)
Table 5. CPI for All Income Households, La Union: January – December 2015 (2006=100)
Table 6. CPI for All Income Households, Pangasinan: January – December 2015 (2006=100)
Table 7. Year-on-Year Inflation Rate: 1st Quarter 2016 (2006 = 100)
Table 8. Year-on-Year Inflation Rate: 1st Quarter 2015 (2006 = 100)
Table 9. Year-on-Year Inflation Rate: 4th Quarter 2014 (2006 = 100)
Table 10. Consumer Price Index by Commodity Group and by Province, Region I: 4th Quarter 2015 (2006 = 100)
Table 11. Consumer Price Index by Commodity Group and by Province, Region I: 1st Quarter 2015 (2006 = 100)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the regular outputs of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The CPI served as an indicator of the movement of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly availed by households relative to a given base year. The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso. It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as a monitoring indicator of the government economic policy. The important components of the CPI are the base period, market basket, weighting system, formula and the geographical area.
Base Period/Base year
The base period, also coined as the base year, is a reference date at which the index is taken as equal to 100. Since CPI aims to measure the average movement of retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services, it is necessary to compare the changes in prices in the current year to movements in previous years back to a reference date. This reference date or base period is simply a convenient bench mark to which a continuous series of index can be related and has no numerical significance.Base period refers to a year. Specific month is deemed unwise to use as a base period because it often reflects accidental or seasonal influences to prices of goods and services. Thus, base year is often defined as a synonymous term with base period.
The current series uses 2006 as the base period as per the former National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Resolution Number 2, Series of 2009 approving the synchronized rebasing of the price indices. It was also chosen as the base year because it is the year when the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) was conducted. The results of the FIES serve as basis in the determination of weights.
The CPI is yet to undergo another rebasing from the current 2006 to the 2012 base period. Thus, since August 2014, additional new items for the 2012-based market basket were simultaneously collected with the regular monitoring of prices.
Since it is impossible to monitor the movement of prices of all the thousands of goods and services purchased and ultimately consumed by households in the county, a sample of these items, known as the “CPI market basket”, was selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by the consumers. Said market baskets were composed of the goods and services commonly consumed/purchased/availed by households within a geographically bound area, which include food and beverages, alcoholic beverages and cigarettes, clothing, housing and utilities, furnishings and routine maintenance of household, health, transport, communication, recreation, education, restaurant and miscellaneous household expenditures.
The market basket used in the 2006-based CPI for all income households was derived from goods and services usually consumed by 70% of the upper household and the bottom 30% income group households drawn from the results of the 2007-2008 Commodity and Outlet Survey (COS). The COS is a nationwide survey undertaken by the former National Statistics Office (NSO), now part of the newly organized PSA. It aims to gather data on commodities and services that a family purchased, consumed or availed of most of the times and the outlet/s where said commodities and services were purchased/availed of within the country.
There are 80 provincial market baskets in our country including the market basket for the National Capital Region (NCR), Isabela City and Cotabato City. In our region, there are four market baskets, one for each province. The number of commodities and the comparisons with the 2000-based market baskets are presented in Table 12.
Table 12. Number of Commodities Included in the 2000 and 2006 CPI Market Baskets, Region I
To have a sound and meaningful system, the relevance of each component of the index should be considered, thus proper weighting pattern is a must. For the CPI, the weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to the total expenditure based on the results of the 2006 FIES. Table 13 shows the weights of the eleven United Nations Classification of the Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) divisions used in the computation of the CPI.
Table 13. Weights by Commodity Group for CPI (2006=100)
The PSA employed the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives and the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base period weights.
To effectively monitor the changes in price of basic commodities, the monitoring activity should be geographically bounded. The CPI values are computed at the national, regional and provincial levels, and for some selected cities. Separate computations are done for the National Capital Region.
Uses of CPI
One of the main uses of the CPI is the generation of the inflation rate. Inflation rate is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year change of the CPI expressed in percent. The formula is:
CPI2 – is the CPI in the second period
CPI1 – is the CPI in the previous period
Another important economic indicator derived from the CPI is the Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP). This indicator measures the real value of the peso in a given period relative to a chosen reference period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100.